“We forecast the crude sunflower oil imports to India at 3.4 mln tonnes in 2024/25 MY, down from 3.5 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY. To achieve this goal, we will have to buy more Russian, Argentine and possibly European sunflower oil rather than Ukrainian. Ukraine suffered from the heat wave that hit the harvest. The sunflower harvest here will be about 12.5 million tons, and the oil content of the crop will decrease,” Bagani explained.
Sunvin Group forecasts crude palm oil imports to India in 2024/25 MY at 9.3 mln tonnes, up from 9.2 mln tonnes in the previous season. However, Bagani noted that India will face some problems in the import of crude palm oil due to the policy of Indonesia, which aims to increase the export of processed products, not crude palm oil.
According to the company's forecasts, in 2024/25, compared to the previous season, India will reduce the import of sunflower oil from 3.5 to 3.4 million tons, but will increase the import of crude palm oil from 9.2 to 9.3 million tons and soybean oil from 3.2 to 3.3 million tons.
Given the decrease in the sunflower harvest in Ukraine due to the heat to 12.5 million tons and its low oil content, India will have to increase the import of sunflower oil from Argentina, the Russian Federation and, possibly, European countries.
Due to the extremely high average daily temperatures and the rapid accumulation of effective heat, which is significantly higher than the long-term average, the inter-phase periods of sunflower development are shortened, which can lead to a premature end of the growing season and a reduction in yield. In addition, such daytime weather conditions lead to wilting of the plants, sometimes even to desiccation and complete plant death from drought.
In its July report, MARS lowered its yield forecasts for almost all EU crops. For sunseed – from 2.2 t/ha to 2.09 t/ha, which is 2% less than the 5-year average.
The current sunseed crop forecast worsened for all countries in the Black Sea-Danube region. In general, the crop in 2024/25 MY will decrease by 8%. No country will avoid the decline in SFS production in 2024.
Drought leads to crop corrections.
Heat and drought have reduced the initially optimistic production estimates for the 2024 EU sunflower seed crop. While the European Commission's June forecasts were still at 10.786 million mt, the expectations in the current report are now only 10.137 million mt. However, this would still correspond to a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.
Falling soybean oil prices are putting pressure on other vegetable oil markets. Palm and sunflower oil prices are still flat, while canola oil FOB Rotterdam fell 6.5% for the week to $1,030/t, in line with last year's level.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange during the week, November soybean futures fell 5.3% to $375/t (-8.7% for the month, -23% for the year) under pressure from favorable weather for US crops, while December f soybean oil prices - by 7.3% to $925/t (-8.8% for the month, -36% for the year).
In addition, lower oil prices put pressure on prices. September Brent crude futures for the week fell 3% to $78.7/barrel (-10% on the month) amid worse-than-expected data on the state of the Chinese economy and lower speculative demand caused by political tensions in Gazi.
This forecast was made by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA).
In its latest published forecast, the UGA assumes that the potential export of sunflower could reach 250 thsd tons, while its processing into oil could reach 12.5 mln tons. Last season, the processing amounted to 13.5 mln tons.
At the same time, Oil World warns of a possible reduction in supplies of sunflower and rapeseed oil from the Black Sea region as a result of unfavorable weather conditions, which will be partially offset by an increase in soybean oil imports.
The increase in demand for canola will be facilitated by the temporary anti-dumping duties introduced by the European Commission against Chinese biodiesel and renewable fuel, which will take effect on August 16. 39 Chinese exporters of biodiesel will be taxed with an anti-dumping duty of 36.4%, three more will receive rates in the range of 12.8-36.4%, and for companies that contributed to the EC investigation, the duty will be 23.7%. At the same time, Chinese environmentally friendly aviation fuel will not be subject to tariffs.
According to the European Biodiesel Council (EBV), in 2023, China supplied the EU with 1.8 million tons of biodiesel, or 10% of total consumption. Cuts in Chinese supplies will revive European biodiesel production and boost demand and support canola and canola prices, which is good news for Australian and Canadian exporters.
India imports an additional 65,000 mt of sesame seeds
The availability of the summer crop is boosting trading activity in the Indian sesame seed market. The total crop is estimated at 85,000-90,000 mt and enquiries are constantly coming into the market. Export prices for hulled sesame seeds, 99.98% purity, are currently at USD 2,345/mt CIF Hamburg. Bids for the current sesame seed tender from South Korea will be accepted at the end of next week. A total of 10,000 mt is being requested, divided into two positions.