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APK-Inform Agency invites you to the XXII International Conference Fat-and-Oil Industry-2024
October 30, 2024, Kyiv at InterContinental Hotel.
For more than 20 years, this event has been gathering the leaders of the fat-and-oil industry of Ukraine and serving as a discussion platform for the largest producers, exporters and importers of oilseeds and processed products.
Ukraine remains one of the key suppliers of oil and fat products to foreign markets despite the significant challenges faced by the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex in the context of the war. In particular, the share of Ukrainian sunflower oil on the global market in 2023/24 MY is maintained at 40%, sunflower meal - increased from 43% to 47%, rapeseed - also increased to 22% against 17% in the previous MY.
During the conference, we offer you to get exclusive information on the prospects of the oilseed market in the season-2024/25, as well as the most pressing issues of the global oilseeds and processed products trade.
Key topics of the conference
- Prospects of the sunflower market in the Black Sea region in the season-2024/25
- Competition and key markets for sunflower oil and meal
- EU as a key market and its impact on the Ukrainian oilseeds sector
- Challenges and risks for the oil and fat industry of Ukraine in the context of European integration
- The growing market of soybeans and rapeseed in Ukraine: potential of the new season and long-term expectations
- Market of value-added processed products: state of the art in the segments of vegetable oil and organic oil
- Development of the oilseed sector in times of war: investments and new projects in Ukraine
- Logistics of the oil and fat market: domestic, port and international
- Global geopolitical and climate changes
- Green course in agriculture: status and prospects
- Impact of the energy crisis on the oilseed sector of Ukraine
Rain to slow down the harvest process
The sunflower seed harvest is in full swing. In Ukraine, 780,800 ha have been harvested so far. The average yield has improved compared to last week from 1.63 mt/ha to 1.78 mt/ha, bringing production to 1.39 million mt so far. Year-on-year, however, yields have declined significantly. It should be noted that around 16% of the area under sunflowers had been harvested by the end of last week, as the farmers were able to start work around two weeks earlier this year; this time last year, just 2% of the acreage had been harvested.
In terms of crops since the beginning of the current season exported:
- wheat - 4.678 mln tonnes (in MY 2023/24 - 2.502 mln tonnes);
- barley - 1.165 mln tonnes (542 thousand tonnes);
- rye - 7.5 thousand tonnes (0.6 thousand tonnes);
- maize - 2.498 mln tonnes (2.311 mln tonnes).
Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of September 13 are estimated at 14.4 thousand tonnes (29.2 thousand tonnes in MY 2023/24), including wheat flour - 13.1 thousand tonnes (28.3 thousand tonnes).
OTTAWA/ASTANA. With the gradual increase in tariffs on imports of Russian flaxseed into the EU, buyers are looking for alternative suppliers. Canadian traders, meanwhile, are worried about their relations with China.
Russia's crop smaller than last year
Good prospects for Kazakhstan's flaxseed crop have the market in a positive mood after last year's disastrous result. According to experts, Russia's flaxseed production is also expected to reach around 1.6 million mt this year, which is less than last year's record crop but still a satisfactory result overall. In Canada, yields may also recover, but even with a 10% increase on last year to 300,100 mt, the result would be far below the figures of previous years.
As of September 6, 1.39 million tons of sunflower were threshed from 780.8 thousand ha or 16% of the area in Ukraine with a yield of 1.78 t/ha, while last year at the start of harvesting, the yield was 1.86 t/ha.
The agency ProZerno reduced the forecast of the sunflower harvest in the Russian Federation by 0.6 to 15 million tons (17.25 million tons last year), and ICAR experts reduced their estimates of the harvest by 0.6 to 15.4 million tons due to poor yields in the south and severe delays vegetation in the Volga region, where the sunflower may not ripen before harvesting.
According to Oil World estimates, in 2024/25 FY, due to the reduction in production, global sunflower exports will not exceed 2.36 million tons (2.69 million tons in 2023/24 FY), which will be the lowest figure in the last 9 years. Thus, compared to the previous season, sunflower exports from the EU will decrease from 460 to 330 thousand tons, from Moldova - from 470 to 340 thousand tons, from Ukraine - from 310 to 130 thousand tons, while exports from Kazakhstan will increase from 190 to 250 thousand tons.
Crop estimates at the beginning of October
Indian sesame seed farmers have sown smaller areas for the upcoming Kharif crop than in previous years. In the past ten years, the average acreage was 1.296 million ha; this year it is just 1.095 million ha. This means that the area planted for the winter crop is 7.8% smaller than last year. In the main growing region of Uttar Pradesh, there was a slight increase in cultivation of 1.1% to 354,000 ha, and farmers in smaller regions such as Maharashtra also cultivated more sesame seeds. In other growing regions such as Madhya...
As a rule, farmers’ decisions on sowing area distribution are formed based of the previous season’s results. Thus, the most attractive crops for farmers in 2025 are the most profitable oilseeds of 2023/24 MY.
Oilseed prices were bullish for the whole 2023/24 season, determining higher margins of oilseeds compared to that of cereals. Soybean margins changed from negative to impressively high figures, explaining significant expansion of soy areas in 2024.
In 2024/25 MY, total oilseed area was record high of 9.83 M ha.
Over the last three years, the areas distribution changed in favor of soybeans (share of 27% in 2024 vs. 15% in 2022) and rapeseed (15% vs. 12) at the expense of SFS (58% vs. 73%).
Compared to the August estimates, the new balance for soybeans for FY 2024/25 is almost unchanged:
- The estimate of initial reserves was left at 112.25 million tons (100.66 million tons in FY 2023/24).
- The global production forecast was increased by 0.47 to 429.2 million tons (394.75 million tons in FY 2023/24 and 378.4 million tons in FY 2022/23), in particular for Canada – by 0.3 to 7.2 million tons and Paraguay - by 0.5 to 11.2 million tons. For the USA, the estimate was left at the level of 124.9 (113.34) million tons, although analysts expected a decrease in the forecast.
- The estimate of world consumption was increased by 0.14 to 402.98 (383.29) million tons.
- The estimate of world exports was increased by 0.41 to 181.63 (177.95) million tons, in particular for Paraguay - by 0.5 to 7.3 million tons. For the USA, the forecast was left at 50.3 million tons, for Brazil - 105 million tons.
- The forecast of world ending stocks was increased by 0.28 to 134.58 million tons (112.25 million tons, 99.7 million tons and 100.3 million tons).
For FY 2023/24, USDA experts left the soybean harvest forecast in Brazil at 153 million tons, and exports at 105 million tons, although the local agency Conab estimates them at 147.38 and 92.4 million tons, respectively, so in the October report, estimates may be adjusted.
According to the report, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose by 1% to $371.4/t (+2.5% compared to the data after the August report).