In the period from July 2025 to February 2026 inclusive, the Republic of Moldova exported 66.8 thousand tons of sunflower oil, which is almost six times higher than the extremely low volume of the previous season (only 11.65 thousand tons). In the current season, the processing of products inside the country resumed.
However, even under current conditions, the volume remains far below the real industrial potential of the country’s oil and fat industry.
“The price dynamics confirms the quantitative and cost recovery of export commodity flow that started in the current marketing season,” says expert Iurie Rija. – The average export price of sunflower oil from RM amounted to 22.20 lei/kg, which is higher than the level (21.40 lei/kg) in the 2024-25 season. And even higher compared to the failed 2023-24 season (average of only 14.70 lei/kg).
In value terms, oil exports brought the country revenues of 1.484 billion lei. However, this amount is five times less than the income received from sunflower (raw material) exports during the same period – 6.881 billion lei.
A significant part of raw materials is still exported, bypassing the local processing industry. Out of a total of about 788,000 tons exported in various forms (raw material, oil and meal), about 632,000 tons were exported in the form of raw sunflower. Only 156 thousand tons were used in processed form, only 20%.
Compared to the previous season, the structure of the industry’s external supplies did improve. At that time the imbalance was much more severe: 93% of exports were in the form of raw materials and only 7% were processed products.
According to recent data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global sunflower seed production will likely reach 54.1 million tonnes in the current marketing season. This figure is not only 2.1 million tonnes higher than previously expected but also far exceeds the previous year's level of nearly 52.1 million tonnes.
According to USDA data, the ongoing harvest in Argentina is projected to be around 1.5 million tonnes larger than had been expected in February, reaching 7 million tonnes. This would be the largest harvest in 28 years, mainly due to an expansion in the production area for the 2026 harvest at the expense of cotton, especially in northern Argentina.
Harvest operations are currently in full swing and are expected to continue until April. Yields obtained so far have been encouraging. The USDA therefore revised its forecast upward by 0.3 decitonnes per hectare to 23.3 decitonnes per hectare, matching the previous year's result.
The USDA also revised its forecast for the Ukrainian harvest. According to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, the country's harvest is projected at 11 million tonnes, around 500,000 tonnes more than expected in February. This would nevertheless represent the smallest harvest in 12 years.
The USDA further raised the crop outlook for Kazakhstan by 64,000 tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes, representing an increase of approximately 700,000 tonnes compared to 2024/25.
By the end of the third week of the war in the Middle East, the global vegetable oil market is showing mixed dynamics. Palm, soybean and rapeseed oils are rising, while sunflower oil is not, Serhii Repetskyi, managing partner at Sunstone Brokers, told Latifundist.com.
In recent weeks, palm oil prices have increased by around $30/t, rapeseed oil by $30–40/t in Europe, while soybean oil has shown high volatility in line with crude oil. At the same time, sunflower oil has not followed this upward trend.
“Sunflower oil is the only one that’s been truly unlucky. Prices have not moved up; on the contrary, despite rising freight rates at destination markets, buyers are acting as if nothing has happened. Prices have increased by just $5–7/t in Turkey and India, while in European ports they have even declined,” Repetskyi said.
Additional pressure comes from competition with Argentine sunflower oil, which for May–June shipments is trading at a discount of about $30/t to Black Sea-origin oil on the Indian market, he added.
According to him, the main reason for the weak performance is a shift in demand toward cheaper oils. Trading activity also remains subdued: in India, it is below average, while in the EU it is almost absent. Only the Turkish market has shown some activity recently.
A sharp rise in fertilizer prices is putting significant pressure on palm oil producers in Malaysia and Indonesia. Due to higher raw material costs and supply disruptions, fertilizer producers and suppliers are revising their prices, while some companies have already suspended the acceptance of new orders.
The crisis has been triggered by the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted supplies of oil and gas—key inputs for fertilizer production. As a result, raw material prices are surging, adding further financial strain on the agricultural sector.
Market participants say that prices for some components have jumped by 100–150% in just the past two weeks. Under such conditions, fertilizer producers are being forced to temporarily halt sales or refuse new orders until price levels stabilize.
The situation is particularly critical for palm oil plantations, where fertilizers can account for up to 60% of total production costs. Rising agrochemical prices are directly squeezing margins and forcing companies to cut expenses or look for alternative solutions.
Farmers and producers are already beginning to partially switch to organic fertilizers or combine them with mineral ones to manage costs. However, experts warn that if the conflict drags on, pressure on the sector will intensify, potentially impacting global vegetable oil prices.
The US administration has opened a new set of trade investigations targeting 16 trading partners – including Mexico and China – over alleged unfair trade practices and industrial overcapacity that the White House claims is undermining American manufacturing, according to a FreightWaves report.
Announced by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on 11 March, the investigations were being conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a law allowing the US government to impose tariffs or other trade penalties if foreign policies were found to harm domestic commerce.
The probe would examine if the targeted economies were producing more goods than their domestic markets could absorb and exporting the surplus to the USA – potentially suppressing wages, distorting prices and discouraging investment in US factories, the 12 March report said.
The 16 trading partners under investigation are: Bangladesh; Cambodia; China; the European Union (EU); India; Indonesia; Japan; Malaysia; Mexico; Norway; Singapore; South Korea; Switzerland; Taiwan; Thailand and Vietnam.
US trade representative Jamieson Greer said the investigations would determine if policies such as government subsidies, state-owned enterprises or labour practices created unfair advantages for foreign producers.
Mexico’s inclusion in the probe could complicate trade relations within the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the report said.
Canada, the second-largest US trading partner, would not be investigated, according to a 11 March Reuters report.
The new investigation could lead to additional tariffs or expanded restrictions on Chinese goods, Reuters wrote on 11 March.
The investigations follow a Supreme Court decision on 20 February striking down the sweeping global levies introduced by Trump last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
After the ruling, the Trump administration imposed new temporary 10% trade penalties on US trading partners under Section 301, scheduled to expire after 150 days unless extended, the FreightWaves report said.
Today, the Ukrainian delegation in Brussels received the European Union’s accession benchmarks for the final three negotiating clusters, Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko has announced.
The clusters concerned are: Cluster 3 – Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth, Cluster 4 – Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity, and Cluster 5 – Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion.
“For the first time in history, Ukraine now has the full set of requirements that must be met for EU accession,” the Prime Minister said.
In December, Ukraine received the benchmarks for three other clusters: Cluster 1 – Fundamentals, Cluster 2 – Internal Market, and Cluster 6 – External Relations.
“We are confidently moving along the European integration path. The next steps are successful closure of the clusters and signing of the Accession Treaty, the final step toward Ukraine’s full membership in the European Union,” Yulia Svyrydenko noted. “The Government will continue to fulfil the accession requirements – implementing the necessary reforms and measures and reporting to the EU.”
The document with the conditions received today will be immediately submitted by the Government to the Verkhovna Rada for joint work on their implementation.
India's sunflower oil imports are likely to face the sharpest disruption, followed by soybean oil imports, from the escalating war in the Middle East, with shipping delays and higher insurance costs compounding supply risks from the Black Sea region, a senior industry executive said March 17.
Sudhakar Desai, CEO of Emami Agrotech Ltd and president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers' Association, said that as India is the world's largest vegetable oil buyer and relies on imports for nearly 60% of its edible oil needs, it will have no choice but to keep buying despite high prices to meet minimum requirements.
The spike in crude oil prices and freight costs has already begun affecting freight routes and input costs, and domestic prices will be sensitive to global supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict, Desai told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, during a March 16 interview.
"Fuel costs have risen by about 16%-17% and freight delays have already pushed palm oil and soybean oil prices higher by 4%-5%," Desai said.
Indonesia and Malaysia are India's largest palm oil suppliers. Argentina is its largest soybean oil supplier, and much of its sunflower oil is sourced from Russia and Ukraine.
In marketing year 2024-25 (November-October), India imported 16.01 million mt of vegetable oils, up 0.3% year over year, data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India showed.
Of this, palm oil accounted for 47% of total imports, while soybean oil imports and sunflower oil imports accounted for roughly 34% and 18% of total imports, respectively.
Palm oil flows have remained relatively stable as freight costs had not risen significantly. Domestic stocks were comfortable following strong February imports and a timely mustard crush, Desai said.
The conflict has also triggered a rally in crude oil prices, raising biodiesel demand and further tightening vegetable oil markets. "If the war situation normalizes, demand will return, but right now we cannot think long term," Desai said.
Vegetable oil prices are linked to crude oil prices, as they are also used as feedstocks to make biodiesel. For biofuel makers, the smaller the price spread between vegetable oils and gas oil, the better the margins.
Global vegetable oil prices rose in February driven by higher prices of palm, soyabean and rapeseed oils, more than offsetting lower sunflower oil quotations, according to the benchmark United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index (FFPI) released on 6 March.
The index tracks changes in the international prices of the most globally traded food commodities.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 174.2 points in February, up 5.6 points (3.3%) compared to the previous month and reaching the highest level since June 2022.
“International palm oil prices rose for the third consecutive month, underpinned by firm global import demand and seasonally lower outputs in Southeast Asia, the FAO said.
“World soyabean oil prices increased on expectations of supportive biofuel policy measures in the United States of America, while rapeseed oil prices rebounded amid prospects for stronger import demand for Canadian supplies.”
Although sunflower oil prices eased moderately, reflecting subdued import demand due to elevated prices and rising export supplies from Argentina, they remained well above the previous year’s levels.
The increase in vegetable oil prices – alongside price increases for cereals and meats – more than offset declines in dairy and sugar, resulting in the first rise of the index after five consecutive monthly decreases.
The FFPI averaged 125.3 points in February 2026, up 1.1 points (0.9%) from its revised January level.
Compared to historical levels, the FFPI stood 1.3 points (1%) below it’s the previous year and as much as 34.9 points (21.8%) down from the peak reached in March 2022.
The FAO’s vegetable oil price index illustrates the changes in international prices of the 10 most important vegetable oils in world trade, weighted according to their export shares.