The association estimates the soybean harvest in the current season at 5.1-5.5 mln tonnes, which will be 7.5-16% more than last year (4.74 mln tonnes). The oilseed yield may decrease by 18.9%, to 2.1 t/ha.
Sunseed production in the current season is expected to reach 11.8-12.5 mln tons, compared to 12.76 mln tons last year. The yield may decrease by 6.1%, to 2.4 t/ha.
Ukroliyaprom forecasts the rapeseed harvest at 3.42-3.6 mln tonnes, compared to 4.19 mln tonnes in the previous season, with the yield at 2.7 t/ha (-7.5%).
“Currently, we are concerned about the uncertainty of possible sunflower and soybean yields due to the abnormal heat. Therefore, our forecast is preliminary and will be subject to change,” the association said.
High competitive pressure
The Indian sesame seed market is experiencing increasing competition from other growing countries. The declining cultivation figures for the upcoming crop are making the situation even more difficult for Indian traders. Added to this are the still high costs for sea freight, which is why many buyers are turning to oil-producing countries closer to their own in order to save costs. Prices for Indian sesame seeds, hulled, 99.98% purity are currently at a level of USD 2,255/mt CIF Hamburg, while unhulled sesame seeds, 99.95% purity are being...
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of September 16, winter rapeseed is still being sown in 18 regions of Ukraine, while in Volyn, Lviv, Rivne and Ternopil regions the sowing has already been completed. Currently, 688.4 thou hectares or 61% of the planned 1.123 mln ha have been planted with winter rapeseed, while last year on this date 999.6 thou hectares or 82.5% of the forecast were planted. In addition, winter crops were planted on 360.3 thou hectares or 7% of the forecasted 5.188 mln ha, compared to 584.6 thou hectares or 11.4% of the last year’s area, and are being sown in 19 regions of Ukraine.
In particular, as of September 16, the following crops were sown:
- winter wheat – 340.3 thou hectares or 8% of the forecasted 4.479 mln ha (514 thou hectares last year),
- winter barley – 16.5 thou hectares (47 thou hectares last year) or 3% of the forecasted 638.5 thou hectares
- winter rye – 3.4 thou hectares (24 thou hectares) or 5% of 70.5 thou hectares.
In the next 7-10 days, no significant precipitation is expected, and temperatures will reach 20-25°C, which will not allow to accelerate sowing. However, farmers will not sow rapeseed in dry soil in the absence of precipitation forecasts.
SOFIA/KYIV. In the WASDE report published last week, the US Department of Agriculture adjusted its forecasts for global sunflower seed crops. As expected, the estimates for the EU and Ukraine were revised downwards.
Ukraine has completed 30% of the harvest
There has been light rainfall in large parts of Ukraine in recent days, but the harvesting process has nevertheless continued unhindered. Despite the progress of the sunflower seed harvest, local processors do not have enough raw materials. Growers are currently holding back on their sales, with many only offering what they cannot store themselves or when they need money to cover running costs. So far, 2.975 million mt of sunflower seeds have been harvested from an area of 1.5 million hectares, which corresponds to 30%...
The global grain consumption forecast was raised by 4 million tons to 2.325 billion tons, 9 million tons more than in the 2023/24 MY. However, due to an upward revision of initial stocks, the estimate for global ending stocks in 2024/25 MY was left at 581 million tons (a 10-year low), which is 10 million tons lower than in 2023/24 MY.
The global wheat production forecast was reduced by 1 million tons to 798 million tons (795 million tons in 2023/24 MY), mainly due to a lower harvest estimate in the EU. The forecast for global wheat ending stocks in 2024/25 MY was raised by 1 million tons to 267 million tons due to an upward revision of initial stocks by 2 million tons (272 million tons in 2023/24 MY).
Thus, in the period from July 1 to September 15, purchases decreased compared to the same period of the previous season:
- soybean oil - by 69% from 190.3 thousand tons to 58.4 thousand tons,
- rapeseed oil - by 56% from 123.8 to 54.7 thousand tons,
- palm - by 38% from 879.3 to 539.6 thousand tons,
- sunflower - by 37% from 539.9 to 339.2 thousand tons.
At the same time, the import of meal decreased by 6% to 13.8 million tons.
At the same time, the purchases of the main oil crops increased during the specified period:
- soybeans - from 2.61 to 2.62 million tons,
- rapeseed - from 770 thousand tons to 1.05 million tons,
- sunflower - from 50.3 to 85.9 thousand tons.
Despite the fact that the heat wave in July and the lack of precipitation in summer significantly reduced the yield potential of the crop, Ukraine may increase the production due to the large planted area, which significantly exceeded the previous expectations. The updated official data on the planted area under soybeans in Ukraine is 2.66 mln ha (+44% by 2023), while APK-Inform estimates the area at 2.6 mln ha (+28% by 2023).
But whether the expected harvest quantity will compensate for the required quality is an open question, as the pace of the harvesting campaign is higher than last year, but the harvesting slowed down due to uneven rains in a large part of the country.
Thus, as of September 12, Ukraine harvested soybeans from more than a third of the forecasted area (as of September 14, 2023 - only 14%) with the average yield of 20.3 c/ha against 24.3 c/ha last year.
Prices stable for the time being
Prices on the Canadian flaxseed market have stabilised for the time being. However, the prospect of higher export demand from EU countries combined with the smaller acreage is likely to support prices, although initial trends suggest that yields will be higher than last year. However, the flaxseed harvest in Saskatchewan, Canada, has not yet fully started, which is why more precise yield estimates are still a long way off.