Turkey’s grain production in 2025 may amount to 37.4 million tons, 4.1% less than last year, the National Statistical Service of the Republic TÜİK predicts.
Wheat production will decrease by 5.8% to 19.6 million tons, barley production by 8% to 7.5 million tons, rye by 5.5% to 243 thousand tons, and oats by 23.1% to 300 thousand tons. Corn production is expected to increase by 4.9% compared to 2024, to 8.5 million tons.
The statistical service expects vegetable production to be approximately 33 million tons, 1.7% less than in 2024. In particular, tomato production will decrease by 5.7% to 13.78 million tons.
The total production of fruit crops will decrease by 24.4% compared to last year, to 21.4 million tons. In particular, the apple harvest will fall by 38.7%, to 2.7 million tons, strawberries – by 4%, to 582 thousand tons, peaches – by 32.1%, to 558.5 thousand tons, nectarines – by 35.5%, to 230 thousand tons, cherries – by 55.7%, to 322 thousand tons, grapes – by 18.6%, to 2.82 million tons.
As of May 23, in the MY 2024/25, Ukraine exported 37 million 553 thousand tons of grain and pulses crops, which is 7 million 849 thousand tons or 20.9% less than last year. This is reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
Wheat exports amounted to 14 million 602 thousand tons, which is 2 million 347 thousand tons or 16.07% less than last year.
Ukrainian farmers also exported 2 million 291 thousand tons of barley and 10.8 thousand tons of rye.
Corn exports amounted to 20 million 101 thousand tons, which is 5 million 462 thousand tons or 27.1% less than last year.
In addition, 62.8 thousand tons of flour (or 83.7 thousand tons in grain terms) were sent abroad, which is 28.1 thousand tons or 44.7% less than last year.
In their May report, experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) raised their forecast for global grain production in MY 2025/26 by 2 million tons to 2,375 million tons compared to April estimates, which would exceed the current season’s harvest (2,310 million tons) by 2.8%, in particular, the forecast for corn production – up to 1,274 million tons (1,223 million tons in MY 2024/25). A significant increase in production is expected in the EU, Argentina, and the USA.
The forecast for global grain consumption has been reduced by 1 million tons to 2,372 million tons, which will be 2% higher than the 2024/25 MY (2,334 million tons), due to increased use of soybeans for feed, industrial, and food purposes.
The estimate of world trade has been increased by 4 million tons to 428 million tons (418 million tons in MY 2024/25) due to increased wheat supplies.
The forecast for world carrying stocks of grain has been increased by 5 million tons to 585 million tons, which will exceed the current season’s figure by 4 million tons, while stocks at the world’s leading exporters will grow by 15 million tons. The last annual increase in world ending stocks was recorded in 2016-2017.
The European Commission has adopted a list of transitional measures regarding trade with Ukraine, which will come into force on June 6.
This was announced on Telegram by the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Vitaliy Koval following the results of the negotiations between the EU and Ukraine, which were represented by the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna, Deputy Minister of Economy – Trade Representative Taras Kachko, and the Representative of Ukraine to the European Union Vsevolod Chentsov.
According to him, the main topic of the negotiations was the future of trade between Ukraine and the European Union after the end of the current autonomous trade measures (ATM) on June 5.
“The European Commission has already adopted a list of transitional measures, which will come into force on June 6. This is an interim solution that allows avoiding the worst-case scenario and maintaining access of Ukrainian agricultural exports to the European market. It gives time and space to find a stable long-term solution within the framework of the Association Agreement and the Free Trade Area,” wrote Vitaliy Koval.
According to the latest estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global vegetable oil production will reach 234.5 million tonnes in 2025/26. This is 6.7 million tonnes more than in 2024/25, which would theoretically fully cover the expected demand of 228.9 million tonnes.
According to a study by the German Union for the Promotion of Oilseeds and Grains (UFOP), palm oil remains the most important vegetable oil on the world market in terms of production and consumption. Global palm oil production is estimated at a peak of 80.4 million tonnes. This corresponds to an increase of 2.2 million tonnes compared to 2024/25. Indonesia remains the largest producer with a production volume of 47.5 million tonnes, followed by Malaysia with a production volume of 19.2 million tonnes and Thailand with a production volume of just under 3.4 million tonnes.
Soybean oil production is expected to increase by 2.2 million tonnes to 70.8 million tonnes in the next marketing year, which could be a new record. Rapeseed oil production will reach 34.5 million tonnes in 2025/26, 617,000 tonnes more than in the current season. Sunflower oil production is expected to increase by around 1.8 million tonnes to 21.9 million tonnes.
European olive oil exporters are looking for new markets as a potential tariff hike in the US could weaken their position compared to Turkey and Tunisia. While they are trying to expand their presence in Asia, particularly in India and China, experts say the slow adoption of olive oil in Asian cuisines will not offset the loss of sales in the US. Cultural food preferences remain a major obstacle to growing demand.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the US imported $1.5 billion worth of olive oil from Italy, Spain and Greece in 2023. Total imports amounted to $2.2 billion, including $428 million from Turkey and Tunisia. In contrast, India, China, Japan and South Korea together imported $477 million worth of oil, less than a third of the three European countries’ exports to the US.
Christopher Clegg, a trade consultant in Malaysia, notes that Asian markets have limited potential. “What producers lose to tariffs in the U.S., they don’t make up for in Asia,” he told Olive Oil Times. China prefers peanut or soybean oil, India prefers ghee, and in Malaysia, which imported $8 million worth of oils in 2023, consumption is concentrated among European immigrants.
So far, the driver of global vegetable oil price growth has been soybean oil, which has risen 25% in 2.5 months on expectations of increased biofuel blending mandates in the US. But recent actions by the Trump administration have sent soybean oil prices plummeting, putting pressure on palm and sunflower oil prices.
July soybean oil futures in Chicago fell 5% to $1,099/tonne in a week (+4% in a month), and yesterday after the close of trading they fell another 3% to $1,065/tonne on data on increasing soybean oil inventories in the US and falling oil prices.
According to the US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean processing volumes in April increased by 14% compared to April 2024 to a record 5.5 million tons for this month, as a result of which soybean oil stocks reached a 10-month high of 950 thousand tons. Soybean oil exports from the US are decreasing as supplies from Argentina and Brazil increase.
Export purchase prices for corn in Ukraine continue to fall amid low demand and falling wheat prices, as well as low prices for American corn.
Purchase prices for feed wheat in Ukrainian ports have fallen to $210-214/t, but corn prices remain at $225-228/t as some traders need to close deliveries by the end of May or early June. Large international trading companies have almost stopped purchases in anticipation of new export sales of Ukrainian corn, which are hindered by low corn prices from the US and South America.
US corn exports rose 32.2% to 1.72 million tonnes from May 8-15 compared to the previous week (566,000 tonnes were shipped to Mexico), as buyers try to close deliveries before the end of the 90-day delay in the imposition of US tariffs. In the MY 2024/25, the US exported 45.543 million tonnes of corn, which is 29.2% higher than last year’s pace. But to reach the USDA’s forecast of 66 million tonnes, 1.5 million tonnes must be shipped each week until the end of the season, which will be difficult to do, as buyers will start importing cheap corn from Argentina and Brazil starting in July.