According to the USDA, Ukraine’s share in the global SFO trade in 2023/24 will be almost 41%, and russia’s – 30%.
SFO exports (forecast, 2023/24):
For most of the 2023\24 season, the spread was positive for SFO prices compared to soybean and palm oil prices.
UkrAgroConsult forecast for Ukraine SFS harvest looks optimistic, based on an expansion of sown areas by 2.6%. If only average yields achieved, the 2024 SFS production will increase by 2%. The forecast for 2024/25 SFO exports is also not lower than in the current 2023/24.
russia not for the first time announces a reduction in the SFS sown areas in 2024 (-2% compared to 2023). It is likely that in the new season 2024\25 this scenario will come true, as farmers’ margins of soybeans, rapeseed and flax are growing.
If the drought in Western Australia continues for another month, the bank estimates a significant reduction in the crop is possible. The state produced 44% of Australia’s rapeseed in the 2023-2024 season. The second and third places in rapeseed production are shared by New South Wales and Victoria.
Conditions in New South Wales look “phenomenal” ahead of the fall planting season. In Victoria, conditions are also favorable, but farmers are hoping for rain by June. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting above-average rainfall in New South Wales from May to July, but below average in many parts of Victoria and Western Australia. “If the drought in Western Australia and Canada continues, carryover residuals could be the lowest in eight years. We expect prices to rise,” the bank’s experts wrote.
The Commonwealth Bank forecasts Australian rapeseed production of 5.67 million tons for the 2024-2025 season, about the same as last year. Experts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) give a higher estimate of 6.5 million tons, 14% more than last year, or the third largest crop in history...