The port of Constanta will soon open a new facility for the transit of Ukrainian grain. These infrastructure projects are financed by the European Union.
Such a birth was built for a very long time and was more relevant 1-1,5 years ago. The capacity of the terminals in Constanta was not enough to handle the flow of grain from Ukraine. In the peak season, up to 600 barges with grain were in line, waiting for 30-40 days to be unloaded.
Another birth is for grain transit from countries along the Danube. Today, the ports of Big Odesa handle more than 75% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports. The Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company (UDP) is replacing Ukrainian exports with grain from Middle Danube countries. UDP intends to deliver up to 200-250 K mt per month to Constanta.
Grain exports in 2023 through Constanta were record high at 36 M mt (50% more y/y). Ukrainian grain share was about 40%.
Poland. Grain storage modernization at Gdynia port continues
- The expansion of the grain warehouse with a capacity of 64 K mt at the Port of Gdynia (northeastern Poland) is scheduled to be completed by December 2024. A conveyor system for unloading grain wagons and then transferring grain to ships will also be built. The project will also include new truck and wagon receiving stations.
According to Spike Brokers, the current asking prices for sunflower are:
- DAP Ukraine (regions) – $370-395/t,
- DAP Bulgaria (center) – $450-455/t,
- DAP Bulgaria (port) – $445-450/t,
- CIF Turkey (port) - $455-460/t.
Demand prices for sunflower oil are now as follows:
- FCA Ukraine (regions) – $750-770/t,
- DAP Ukraine (border) – 800-810 €/t,
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa) – $840-850/t,
- DAP Bulgaria (center) – $860-865/t,
- DAP Netherlands (center) – 935-940 €/t,
- DAP Macedonia – 845-850 €/t.
The Association estimates the volume of Indonesian crude palm oil production in March at 4.1 million tons, and its stocks at the end of the month at 3.3 million tons.
It should also be noted that, according to the forecast of experts of OilWorld (Germany), total world exports of the product in April-September 2024 will reach 25.9 million tons from 24.4 million tons in October-March 2023/24 MY and 25.5 million tons in April-September 2023, of which the main volume will be shipped by Indonesia.
The current estimates are calculated based on the analysis of weather conditions for the last 5 years, so a sudden change in the weather in spring or summer may cause the data to be adjusted. The decrease in the harvest in the new season is caused both by a reduction in the area sown (primarily under grain crops due to low world prices and expensive logistics), and by dry weather in May in some regions in the east and south of Ukraine, UZA explains.
If the new forecast comes true, then the export of grain and oil crops in 2024/25 MR will decrease compared to the 2023/24 season from 53.2 to 43.5 million tons.
Compared to previous estimates, the forecast for wheat production in 2024 was reduced by 900 thousand tons to 19.1 million tons, and its export to 13 million tons, while the estimate of barley production was reduced to 4.6 million tons, and its export to 2 million tons.
Massive Erhöhung der Frachtpreise
Despite the recently issued tender in South Korea, trading is still rather sluggish in India. Yet, export prices have risen a bit. Issue is that stock levels will suffice to supply the tender. Freight rates are, however, jeopardising business as prominent shipping lines have issued new prices. Hapag-Llyod has, for instance, announced a Peak Season Surchage (PSS) of USD 500-1,000 per container applicable for shipments from India to various destination ports. Maersk and CMA CGM will also enforce extra charges of USD 500-550 per...
“Sunflower oil prices are rising due to limited supply on the global market. The main producers of sunflower oil in the world are Russia and Ukraine. Russia exports most of its products to China, while other buying countries turn to Ukraine, where the supply is limited. This leads to higher prices for sunflower oil. The purchase price for sunseed in Ukraine has exceeded 18 thousand hryvnias per ton, and factories are willing to buy it even at high prices due to low stock levels. The resumption of port operations in March-February led to a significant decrease in sunseed stocks, which also affects the price increase,” the analytical department of the PUSK said.
Processing plants operate with minimal profit in anticipation of the new oilseed season.
“The current prices often bring minimal profit or even losses to the plants, but their main goal is to maintain operations until the rapeseed season starts, when a new crop will be processed. Sunseed prices are expected to rise further this week. The crushers will continue to buy sunseed at the current prices, which range from UAH 18,100-18,200. By the end of the week and the beginning of the next week, purchase prices are expected to reach 19 thousand hryvnias per ton,” the PUSK forecasts.
Kazakhstan is beginning to play the increasingly important role in the EU oilseed market. APK-Inform has already mentioned the significant growth of Kazakhstan's sunflower meal and rapeseed exports to Europe.
Besides, Kazakhstan is one of the world leaders in the export of oil flaxseed.
In the current season, due to the crop losses and low supply of the oilseed on the market, the volumes of oil flax supplies from Kazakhstan to the EU decreased. However, in 2024/25 season, according to APK-Inform analysts, the gross harvest of oil flaxseed in Kazakhstan may increase by more than 40% compared to 2023/24 MY, up to 453.4 thsd tonnes. Accordingly, the export volumes are expected to increase by almost 10%.
As a reminder, due to the unfavorable weather conditions, the harvest of oilseed flax in Kazakhstan in 2023/24 MY decreased by almost 60% compared to 2022/23 MY (318.3 thsd tonnes against 770.3 thsd tonnes), and the export volumes also decreased by 65%
“Along with grain processing, processing of oilseeds is developing dynamically. In the production of vegetable oil involved 80 enterprises, which in 2023 produced 672 thousand tons of vegetable oil, which is 4.3% more than in 2022. Provision is 183%,” he said.
By the end of the year, vegetable oil production is projected to increase to 750 thousand tons. This figure will be achieved through the expansion of cultivated areas, provision of working capital for the purchase of raw materials and implementation of new investment projects.
So, in this year 3 projects with total capacity of 100 thousand tons in North-Kazakhstan and East-Kazakhstan regions were launched.
“In order to increase the profitability of projects opened the market of China for the sale of finished and by-products in the form of oilcake and meal,” – noted in the Ministry of Agriculture.