News&Events
07.07.2024
Bulgarian oilseed crops show the best results amid EU states
The June MARS reported lower estimates of oilseed yields in the EU, mainly due to excessive rainfall in the northwestern countries:
- Sunflower yield at 2.2 t/ha (-3% m/m, 2.1 t/ha – in 2023, 2.15 t/ha – the average of the last 5 years);
- Rapeseed – down to 3.16 t/ha (-2% m/m, 3.17 t/ha in 2023, 3.17 t/ha as 5 year average).
Comparing the 2024 and 2023 yields, SFS yield forecast remains higher for the 2024 harvest and the rapeseed yield forecast remains lower for the 2024 harvest.
The weather is currently essential influencer in pricing. The lower EU forecast might support the oilseed prices, but Canadian canola, massive rapeseed harvesting in Europe and US soybeans are limiting factor for the bullish trends.
SOFIA/BRUSSELS. Production prospects are highly encouraging for sunflower seeds in the EU for this year. China is the most important supplier for the EU. While the market is in for a turn in direction in Bulgaria, heat is proving to be a bit of a challenge in China.
EU production to climb by 10%
Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, has revised the 2024 EU production estimates for sunflower seeds upwards. While total production was estimated at 10.6 million mt in May, this figure has now climbed to 10.8 million mt. This is 10% up on last year. Production is set to rise in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary, Spain and Croatia, whereas declines are anticipated in France, Italy and Germany. Sharp rises of 29% and 21% respectively are expected in the two leading producing member states Romania and Bulgaria with Hungary...
EU production to climb by 10%
Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, has revised the 2024 EU production estimates for sunflower seeds upwards. While total production was estimated at 10.6 million mt in May, this figure has now climbed to 10.8 million mt. This is 10% up on last year. Production is set to rise in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary, Spain and Croatia, whereas declines are anticipated in France, Italy and Germany. Sharp rises of 29% and 21% respectively are expected in the two leading producing member states Romania and Bulgaria with Hungary...
06.07.2024
Port of Constanta in 2023/24: Agri transit and infrastructure investments
After record grain handling and exports in 2023, grain flows to the port of Constanta, Romania significantly reduced, which is stable trend in the first half of 2024. According to UkrAgroConsult, in January-June 2024, total exports of agricultural goods through the port of Constanta amounted to 11.76 M mt. However, exports of cereals, oilseeds and processed products are traditionally higher in the second half of the year. Sure, it will be impossible to repeat the record of 2023, but grain exports through the ports will return to the level of 2021-2022.
According to preliminary data, in 2023/24 season 28.7 M mt of agricultural commodities were exported through the port of Constanta. In October 2023, exports of 3.9 M mt were record high. From February 2024, exports declined due to a decrease in grain stocks in Romania and lower grain flows of Ukrainian origin. The opening of the Big Odesa ports has significantly affected the grain delivered from Ukraine for further export through the terminals of the Port of Constanta.
Exports of the top 5 agri commodities through the port of Constanta accounted for 89.6% of total exports.
- Wheat – 12.1 M mt;
- Corn – 6.9 M mt;
- Barley – 2.7 M mt;
- Rapeseed – 2.6 M mt
- Sunflower oil – 1.3 M mt
06.07.2024
A 2.1% increase in rapeseed futures in Paris will support prices in Ukraine
Against the background of unfavorable weather conditions, the Strategie Grains agency lowered its forecasts for the harvest of oil crops in the EU in 2024, in particular, rapeseed - from 17.94 to 17.8 million tons, soybeans - from 3.04 to 2.99 million tons, sunflower - from 10 .72 to 10.49 million tons.
In northwestern Europe, rains are continuing, delaying rapeseed harvesting, but processors still have sufficient stocks of the old crop. Vegetable oil prices are rising amid a strengthening biofuels market and declining US soybean crop potential, supporting canola quotes.
On the Paris MATIF, August rapeseed futures yesterday rose by 2.1% to €487.5/t or $523/t (+5.5% for the week), approaching the high reached at the end of May.
On the Winnipeg exchange, November canola futures rose 1.8% on the week to CAD 627/t, or $456/t, following gains in Chicago soybean prices, but were held back by improved prairie weather.
In the current season, Canada exported 6 million tons of canola, which is significantly lower than the figure of the previous season - 7.5 million tons.
In northwestern Europe, rains are continuing, delaying rapeseed harvesting, but processors still have sufficient stocks of the old crop. Vegetable oil prices are rising amid a strengthening biofuels market and declining US soybean crop potential, supporting canola quotes.
On the Paris MATIF, August rapeseed futures yesterday rose by 2.1% to €487.5/t or $523/t (+5.5% for the week), approaching the high reached at the end of May.
On the Winnipeg exchange, November canola futures rose 1.8% on the week to CAD 627/t, or $456/t, following gains in Chicago soybean prices, but were held back by improved prairie weather.
In the current season, Canada exported 6 million tons of canola, which is significantly lower than the figure of the previous season - 7.5 million tons.
06.07.2024
The cost of freight at the beginning of the new season began to rise again
Activation of grain export supplies and increased demand for hand sizes led to an increase in the cost of their freight by $2/t, Spike Brokers analysts report.
"Owners of lighters and barges are trying to increase freight, but a significant supply of ships meets the needs of the current cargo flow, which contributes to the stabilization of prices," experts believe.
Market rates for transportation from river ports are:
The cost of freight for transportation from the port of Chornomorsk is:
"Owners of lighters and barges are trying to increase freight, but a significant supply of ships meets the needs of the current cargo flow, which contributes to the stabilization of prices," experts believe.
Market rates for transportation from river ports are:
- Izmail — Constanta, Romania (1-3 thousand tons) -11-12 €/t,
- Izmail — Ruse/Silistra, Bulgaria (1-3 thousand tons) - 17-18 €/t,
- Izmail — Israel (5-7 thousand tons) - $26-27/t,
- Reni — Marmara, Turkey (5-7 thousand tons) - $16-17/t.
The cost of freight for transportation from the port of Chornomorsk is:
- to the east coast of Italy (30-35 thousand tons) - $23-24/t,
- Spain (30-35 thousand tons) - $24-25/t,
- of southern China (60-65 thousand tons) – $52-54/t,
- of southern Vietnam (60-65 thousand tons) – $50-52/ton.
05.07.2024
Sesame seeds: new crop is pouring in
NEW DELHI/BRUSSELS. Harvesting is nearly complete for sesame seeds in Gujarat. Although large volumes are arriving, prices are expected to rise. Shipping is quite a challenge for exporters in Brazil. EU imports surged in 2023/2024.
Daily arrivals of up to 1,500 mt in India
Harvesting is nearly complete in India's main producing state of Gujarat. Approximately 80,000-85,000 mt of sesame seeds have already arrived in the market. Daily arrivals of white sesame seeds vary from 20,000 to 25,000 bags of 60 kg each in Gujarat and from 700 to 800 bags in Tamil Nadu. In the districts of Mandsaur and Neemuch in Madhya Pradesh weekly arrivals range at 12,000 to 15,000 bags.
Despite arrivals picking up, the market is rather stable at present. Issue is that irrational hikes in sea freight...
Daily arrivals of up to 1,500 mt in India
Harvesting is nearly complete in India's main producing state of Gujarat. Approximately 80,000-85,000 mt of sesame seeds have already arrived in the market. Daily arrivals of white sesame seeds vary from 20,000 to 25,000 bags of 60 kg each in Gujarat and from 700 to 800 bags in Tamil Nadu. In the districts of Mandsaur and Neemuch in Madhya Pradesh weekly arrivals range at 12,000 to 15,000 bags.
Despite arrivals picking up, the market is rather stable at present. Issue is that irrational hikes in sea freight...
05.07.2024
Australia: Nearby values firm despite patchy rain
Feed wheat and barley has traded sideways to firmer in the past week as rain creates a few logistics headaches in the north, and unseasonal demand from sheep producers kicks up values in the south.
Rain in the past week in most cropping and mixed-farming areas of South Australia and Victoria, coupled with patchy rain in New South Wales, has been ideal for winter cereals, pulses and canola.
However, a sizeable feed deficit stretching from the eastern Riverina of NSW to the South East of SA remains in place as soil, overnight and maximum temperatures hit their annual low to rule out the possibility of pasture growth in coming weeks.
05.07.2024
In 2024/25 MR, the global supply of rapeseed will decrease, while imports will increase
In 2024/25 MY, world rapeseed prices will increase against the background of a reduction in the harvest in the main producer countries - Ukraine, Canada and Australia. Barva Invest experts told this at a meeting at the Trend&Hedge Club.
Dry weather in the EU at the time of sowing led to a reduction in the area sown. Then, during the flowering period, crops in Germany, France and Ukraine were damaged by frost. Therefore, the harvest in the EU will definitely be smaller than last year, the only question is by how much. In view of the reduction of its own harvest, the EU can increase the import of rapeseed, which will be useful to Ukraine.
In the new season, Canada will be able to harvest a good crop of canola and increase its supply to the world market, while the prospects for the Australian crop are still unclear, although according to forecasts, it will be smaller than last year. Therefore, in general, in 2024/25 MY, the world supply of rapeseed will decrease, and the need for imports will increase.
Dry weather in the EU at the time of sowing led to a reduction in the area sown. Then, during the flowering period, crops in Germany, France and Ukraine were damaged by frost. Therefore, the harvest in the EU will definitely be smaller than last year, the only question is by how much. In view of the reduction of its own harvest, the EU can increase the import of rapeseed, which will be useful to Ukraine.
In the new season, Canada will be able to harvest a good crop of canola and increase its supply to the world market, while the prospects for the Australian crop are still unclear, although according to forecasts, it will be smaller than last year. Therefore, in general, in 2024/25 MY, the world supply of rapeseed will decrease, and the need for imports will increase.