- 2022/23 season – 470;
- 2023/24 – 550;
UkrAgroConsult forecasts that Ukraine will export 5.9 M mt of SFO this season. The export potential for 3 months of the 2023/24 season (June-August) is estimated at about 1 M mt. The largest monthly SFO export was registered in December 2023 (673 K mt). A record monthly export of 757 K mt was recorded in November 2020.
The main difference of 2023/24 is higher exports in the second half of the season (from Jan-Feb 2024).
SFO exports by land remained in demand in 2023/24, ranging from 22% to 31% of total monthly exports, with the largest shipments of 170 K mt per month. Higher SFO prices relative to grain values made the option of exporting by rail and road more actively used by exporters.
Exports through sea and river ports
In 2023/24, SFO exports by sea was divided in half between the ports of the Danube region and the ports of Big Odesa. In the spring, ports in Odesa region became more frequent targets for missile attacks. It was rumored in April, the terminal of the Delta Wilmar company (Singapore), port of Pivdennyi, storage capacity up to 100 K mt of vegetable oil, was damaged. In May, SFO exports through Pivdennyi port decreased by 40% compared to April, which may indicate serious damage to the terminal.
B.V. Mehta, Executive Director of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), told FE that the reduction in imports this year is due to high mustard and soybean harvests in the domestic market and rising global prices.
Palm oil imports from November to May (2023-24) amounted to 4.97 million tons, 7% less than the previous year. Soybean oil imports totaled 1.59 million tons, down 22% year-on-year, while sunflower oil imports increased by 20% to 1.99 million tons this year.
Floods in Brazil and worker strikes in Argentina led to a sharp rise in global soybean oil prices, while sunflower oil supplies from Russia and Ukraine decreased due to the "dead season." Meanwhile, palm oil prices, which is the main imported product, remained more or less stable in both international and domestic markets.
ET had reported that HUL is reducing use of palm and its derivatives in soap by 25% to offset volatility in commodity prices as well as for environmental reasons.
The increase in soybean processing is due to the high demand for soybean oil and meal.
The global soybean production in 2024/25 season is also expected to increase to 416.5 mln tons from the forecasted 388.76 mln tons in 2023/24 season. In particular, the U.S. plans to harvest 121 mln tons of soybeans.
The oilseed stocks by the end of 2024/25 season (August 2025) may reach 119 mln tons, which will be the second highest in the history of observations and exceed the expected result of 2023/24 season by 19 mln tons.
According to Sokolov, the calculation of the minimum price will be based on official customs data from the previous month. "We use the 5th procentile method. This means we take 5% of all contracts that were concluded at the lowest prices and calculate the average price from them. The resulting figure is then further discounted by 10%. Thus, this calculated minimum price will be below the weighted average price," Sokolov explained.
He also mentioned that the number of deals concluded at prices below the calculated minimum price would be very small. "Such agreements are either genuinely exceptional cases or some sort of scam," the expert noted.
SFS exports are lower in 2023/24 than last season due to bans imposed by EU countries;
SFS stocks decreased in June due to high crushing and stable export demand;
The lower SFO and meal exports in Sept-Dec 2023 are offset by high shipments in Jan-May 2024, exports are higher year-on-year by 21% and 22%, respectively;
SFO exports remain high even in the second half of 2023/24 season (February-June), May monthly exports were record at 714 K mt.
Soybeans/Soy Oil/Meal markets
Soybean S&D is adjusted to increase crushing due to decrease in exports
Soybean exports have been declining since January. Exports for the nine months of 2023/24 (Sept-May) is by 4% behind last season
Soybean oil exports are record, soybean meal shipments are also the highest in the last four seasons.
Rapeseed/Rapeseed Oil/Meal
The last month of the rapeseed is underway. Taking into account the export rates of rapeseed, oil and meal, the rapeseed S&D needs in revaluation of the harvest.
Exports of rapeseed/canola oil/meal are at record levels, even May shipments were impressively high;
The export potential is almost fully realized, for eleven months of 2023/24 rapeseed exports (+7% to 2022/23 season);
July futures for palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia exchange fell by 1% over the week to 3936 ringgit/ton or $834/ton, remaining stable for almost two months amid rising production and falling exports. According to Oil World, Malaysia increased palm oil production by 13.5% in May compared to the previous month, reaching 1.75 million tons, which is also 12.3% higher than the same period in 2023 (1.52 million tons).
High production and falling product prices in the first half of May allowed the country to increase oil exports to 1.38 million tons compared to 1.08 million tons in May 2023.
Thus, since the beginning of 2024, Malaysia has produced 7.26 million tons of palm oil (6.64 million tons in January-May 2023) and exported 6.31 million tons (5.92 million tons).
Palm oil stocks in the country as of the end of May were estimated at 1.75 million tons (1.69 million tons a year earlier).
According to Oil World, Indonesia exported 7.58 million tons of palm oil from January to April 2024, significantly lower than the same period last year (8.37 million tons). The lower export rates are due to reduced production caused by a lack of rainfall in palm-growing regions.