Just as they’re gearing up for planting season, U.S. farmers, already stretched by high input costs and low commodity prices, are watching the price of fertilizer go up.
The recent conflict in Iran, the following closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting impacts to global markets are hitting farmers particularly hard right now.
The wholesale price of urea, the nitrogen fertilizer the U.S. imports the most of, had a high-low spread of $460–480 per short ton the week of Feb. 27, just before the conflict began. By the following week, that spread was $520–620.
“Obviously, that shows a significant jump, but also that's a huge spread over the course of a week to see that level of uncertainty in the trade, as far as how much product is going to be coming in,” said Veronica Nigh, chief economist with The Fertilizer Institute (TFI).
It’s a critical time for farmers to have access to nitrogen fertilizer. According to a March 9 analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), in total, about 50% of nitrogen applied to corn, 28% applied to cotton, and 42% applied to spring wheat is typically applied in the spring.
John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis at AFBF, said in a media briefing on March 9 that in 2025, the U.S. imported about 25 million metric tons of fertilizer, and that 25% of imports occur in March and April.
Newton added that, because of poor economic conditions, a lower number of growers pre-purchased fertilizer this year compared to a normal year. “Fertilizer is not exactly logistically where it needs to be around the country for application,” he said. “That's another logistical challenge that we face.”
The war with Iran has led to a sharp increase in oil prices by 36% in 2 weeks, which should have contributed to a similar increase in vegetable oil prices, but biofuel producers are not in a hurry to raise prices yet, expecting that oil will soon become cheaper. Therefore, palm oil quotes, which are most correlated with oil prices, have increased by only 12% since the start of the war.
May soybean oil futures on the Chicago SWOT have risen by 8.7% since the start of the war with Iran, but prices for sunflower oil for delivery to India have risen by only $10/t to $1,420-1,425/t CIF Mumbai in a week, as importers are actively buying cheap palm oil, which is now worth about $1,200/t CIF Mumbai.
Demand prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil increased by $10-15/t to $1,280-1,290/t for delivery to Black Sea ports during the week, which led to a further increase in sunflower prices in Ukraine.
As a result of Hungary and Slovakia blocking the allocation of 90 billion euros in aid to Ukraine from the EU, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market in Ukraine increased by 1.4% to 44.3 UAH/$ (+2.8% per month), which significantly supported purchase prices tied to export contracts.
During the week, purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine increased by 500-900 UAH/t to 29,800-31,200 UAH/t (for 50% oil content) with delivery to the factory, but dollar prices remained unchanged or decreased to the level of 590-620 $/t excluding VAT.
Therefore, processors received an additional 300-400 UAH/t from the increase in the dollar exchange rate, which they can pay extra for larger batches of sunflower. Farmers continue to sell sunflower in small batches in anticipation of further price increases, but they should take into account that oil prices may fall at any time, which will lead to a corresponding decrease in prices for the oilseed.
The European Union’s agri-food sector had another record-breaking year in 2025, strengthening its global leadership in agricultural trade. The surplus is roughly four times higher than in 2002, and the EU continues to be a net exporter in most agri-food categories. Furthermore, the sector contributed 37% of the EU’s overall trade surplus in 2025 underlining the sector’s importance to the European economy.
Agri-food exports climbed to EUR 238.4 billion in 2025, – a 1% increase compared to 2024 (+ EUR 2.8 billion). The EU maintained its position as the world’s largest agri-food exporter. It also stands out as the only exporter among the global top five (EU, US, Brazil, China and Canada) to grow the overall value of exports over the year. This shows the resilience of EU agri-food exports despite a volatile trade context.
Exports were strong throughout the year, exceeding 2024 levels in every month except August and November. Overall export prices remain high, peaking in early 2025 before gradually easing. On average, export prices remained stable year-on-year.
The United Kingdom is still the leading destination for EU agri-food products. By contrast, exports to the US and China declined. On balance, however, the EU maintained a well-diversified portfolio of export markets across the world.
Product diversification also remains a strength: EU agri-food exports continued to be distributed across a large set of product categories in all product classes. Cereals, dairy products and wine led the export basket. Higher global prices significantly boosted the value of cocoa products, coffee, chocolate and dairy exports. By contrast, olive oil exports declined in value due to lower prices, while exported volumes of wine and cereals also fell.
Agri-food exports represented 9% of total EU exports in 2025 (EUR 2.6 trillion), underlining the sector’s strategic economic importance.
Global sunflower production could reach a new record in the 2026/27 marketing season, according to analysts from the German agricultural market research firm Oil World.
The forecast suggests that worldwide sunflowerseed production may rise sharply thanks to improved yields and expanding planted areas across key producing regions.
If favorable weather conditions persist, global output could reach 62.3 million tonnes, significantly above the estimated 56.56 million tonnes expected for the current 2025/26 season.
The expected growth reflects a recovery from drought-related yield losses in previous seasons and a noticeable expansion of sunflower acreage in...
The ongoing Gulf conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has driven up crude oil prices and threatens to disrupt supply chains for commodities including soyabeans, corn and fertiliser.
Since US military strikes on Iran began on 28 February, Brent crude oil prices have reached as high as US$120/barrel against pre-conflict prices of US$67/barrel, due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally carries about 20% of global oil trade.
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson said on 11 March that any vessel linked to the US, Israel or their allies would be targeted in the strait, the BBC reported the following day.
Three more cargo vessels were hit in the Gulf on 11 March and Brent crude oil was trading around US$96-100/barrel today despite the International Energy Agency releasing a record 400M barrels of oil yesterday to stabilise global oil markets.
Agriculture markets, led by edible oils, have also risen – as biofuels derived from agricultural feedstocks such as soyabeans and corn, have become more attractive, according to a 2 March InfoMoney report.
Soyabean oil prices rose by 3.9% to a two-and-a-half year high on 2 March, the report said.
It's kind of a perfect storm for soyabean oil, with rising oil prices increasing demand for biofuels,” Arlan Suderman, chief commodity economist at StoneX, was quoted by InfoMoney as saying.
Against the backdrop of surging crude oil prices, Indonesia could revive a plan to launch a mandatory B50 grade of palm oil-based biodiesel in the middle of this year, deputy energy minister Yuliot Tanjung was quoted as saying in a 9 March Reuters report.
“B50 might be implemented in the second semester or even earlier...But for now the steering committee’s decision for B40 until the end of 2026 still stands,” he added, saying that authorities were monitoring price movements in real time.
Malaysian commodity exports had not been significantly affected by the Middle East conflict to date, Plantation and Commodities Dr Noraini Ahmad was quoted as saying in a 10 March report by The Star.
However, Ahmad said other costs including transportation, logistics and insurance were expected to increase if the crisis continued.
New Delhi: India's crude sunflower oil imports fell 51 per cent to 1,45,000 tonne in February, an industry body said on Thursday, as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and disruptions to Black Sea shipping routes pushed prices sharply higher.
The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said average import price for crude sunflower oil rose 17 per cent to USD 1,420 per tonne in February from USD 1,216 a year earlier, while the rupee's 4.2 per cent depreciation over the past year compounded costs for importers and refiners.
Russia and Ukraine together supply 70-90 per cent of India's sunflower oil imports. War-related disruptions to Black Sea export routes, compounded by tensions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, have tightened supplies and raised freight costs, SEA said.
"...the current conflict - especially potential disruptions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal - threatens to delay shipments, increasing logistic costs and affecting availability," SEA said in a statement.
Imports in the first four months of the 2025-26 oil year, which began in November 2025, fell to 9.04 lakh tonne from 11.2 lakh tonne a year earlier.
"The risks of disrupted sunflower oil shipments from Russia and Eastern Europe, and higher freight costs for palm oil, have caused price hikes, forcing traders and consumers to closely monitor the situation to navigate supply chain risks," SEA said.
To reduce dependence on Black Sea supplies, India has been in talks with Mercosur nations - Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay - for long-term soybean and sunflower oil contracts.
Kazakhstan ranked as the second-largest supplier of sunflower oil to China in 2025, capturing a 36% share of the market, Qazinform News Agency quotes Yadykar Ibragimov, Chairman of the National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA), as saying.
According to the Association, in 2025 Kazakhstan’s exports of oil and fat products to China increased by 44% to 440,000 tons, while revenue grew by 37% to $312 million.
“One of the factors behind the growth of exports to China has been the improved efficiency of logistics processes. Since early 2024, the Association and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy have been implementing a pilot project for the transshipment of vegetable oil through the Dostyk–Alashankou border crossing. Since then, the fulfillment of shipment plans toward China has exceeded 90%, whereas in 2023 this figure did not surpass 40%,” Yadykar Ibragimov said at the international conference Chinese Grains & Oils Congress 2026 in Shanghai.
According to the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture, in March this year the NOPA, together with Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, also launched a pilot coordination of export plans for granulated sunflower meal shipped in grain wagons to China, based on the already proven mechanism used for transporting vegetable oil.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that annual grain processing in Kazakhstan reaches 5 million tons.
MUMBAI, March 10 (Reuters) - Rising vegetable oil prices and freight rates are pushing Indian buyers toward prompt shipments amid concerns deliveries of newly purchased soyoil and sunflower oil could be delayed by the Middle East conflict, five dealers told Reuters.
As the world's largest importer of vegetable oils, India's move to curb fresh purchases could limit further upside in prices of palm oil , soyoil and sunflower oil, although it may tighten local supplies in April.
Local edible oil prices have jumped in recent days, in line with a rally in global markets, but refiners are reluctant to make overseas purchases at the higher levels, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
"Buyers are not confident that prices will sustain, or that soyoil and sunflower oil suppliers will be able to deliver on time, as freight rates are rising," he said.
India buys soyoil mainly from Argentina and Brazil, and sunflower oil largely from Russia and Ukraine, with typical sea voyage times from South America to India of over six weeks and about three to four weeks from the Black Sea.
The market is concerned that if the Middle East conflict escalates, sunflower oil shipments from the Black Sea region may have to be diverted around Africa instead of passing through the Red Sea, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.
"Diverting via Africa would add more than 10 days to transit time and increase freight costs by $20 per ton or more," he added.