The decrease in sunflower oil supply from the Black Sea region is being offset by increased palm oil supplies, supporting palm prices, while soybean oil prices continue to fall as supply builds, limiting growth in related markets.
October Brent crude futures fell 3.8% to $79/barrel in anticipation of the Strait of Hormuz being unblocked, so markets will remain under pressure this week from increased oil supply and reduced demand for biofuels.
December soybean oil futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago fell 2.2% to $1,487/t (-6% in two weeks, +2.2% in the month) under pressure from lower oil prices and improved weather conditions for soybean crops in the US.
During the week, spot prices for soybean oil in Brazil decreased by $15-25/t to $1,190-1,195/t FOB, and soybean oil futures in Dalian (China) decreased by $20/t to $1,235-1,240/t.
According to Oil World, soybean oil exports from Argentina in June increased compared to the same period last year from 589 thousand tons to a record 742 thousand tons, and in total in April-June 2025/26 MY reached 1.96 million tons (1.80 million tons last year), of which about 1 million tons were delivered to India.
September palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia rose 1.1% to RM4,695/t or $1,148/t (+2.8% in three weeks) in the past 7 days on the back of a 15% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports in July. Production is expected to grow more than exports in July, so inventories will continue to rise.
Palm oil remains more competitive than soybean oil in the key global market, India, but this advantage is gradually being lost. According to Fastmarkets, the difference between the prices of palm and soybean oil for August delivery decreased by $5/t to $32.5/t in the week.
Despite lower palm oil quotes in Malaysia and soybean oil in the US, Indian importers are still preferring palm oil due to its lower cost. Crude palm oil consignments for August delivery are being offered at $1,230/t CFR India West Coast, while soybean oil is being offered at $1,260-1,265/t.
However, the situation may change in the fourth quarter. According to Fastmarkets, soybean oil for October-December delivery is already being offered at about $10/t cheaper than palm oil, which may encourage Indian importers to increase purchases of soybean oil if this price difference persists.
The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) on Friday said that it has imposed a penalty and passed an adjudication order on AWL Agri Business Ltd for manufacturing and marketing a substandard fortified edible oil under the provisions of the FSS Act, 2006. It said that the levels of Vitamin A and Vitamin D were found to be below prescribed levels in a sample of Fortune Fryola Refined Sunflower Seed Oil.
It said this order was passed by the Adjudicating Officer, Goa, but did not specify the penalty amount.
The matter pertains to the company’s Fortune Fryola Refined Sunflower Seed Oil. A sample of the product, which was collected by FSSAI from Taj Fort Aguada Resort & Spa, Goa, did not conform to the standards prescribed under the FSS (Fortification of Foods) Regulations, 2018, as per the test report of the primary food lab, it said in a social media post.
“The levels of Vitamin A and Vitamin D were below the prescribed limits, thereby declaring the product substandard under Section 3(1)(zx) of the Food Safety and Standards Act, 2006,” it added.
After the brand’s appeal, the sample was further analysed by the referral laboratory and it was confirmed that the Vitamin D content was significantly below the prescribed range, affirming that the product was substandard. “Subsequently, the Central Licensing Authority granted sanction for prosecution, and the adjudication application was filed,” the food safety regulator said.
“The Adjudicating Officer, Goa, passed the adjudication order and imposed a penalty on AWL Agri Business Ltd for manufacturing and marketing a substandard fortified edible oil under the provisions of the FSS Act, 2006,” FSSAI said.
“We have not yet received a certified copy of the order. Based on the information available to us, the matter relates to fortification levels, specifically of Vitamin D, in the said sample. This is not a product safety concern, and the said sample was entirely safe for consumption. It may be noted that added vitamins are inherently sensitive to storage conditions, light, and time. We are reviewing the order and...
Rome – The benchmark measure of world food commodity prices edged up in July, as recent heatwaves and energy price dynamics pushed up quotations for cereals, vegetable oils and sugar, according to new data released Friday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 131.1 points in July 2026, up 0.6 percent from its June level and 1.0 percent higher than its year-earlier level.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 3.4 percent from June, reversing its May decline, to stand 6.9 percent above its July 2025 level. Global wheat prices surged by 5.8 percent amid heightened concerns over continued disruptions to Black Sea export flows and the likely impact of recent heatwaves on crop yields in several key producing countries. World maize prices increased by 3.6 percent, supported by concerns over hot and dry weather in parts of the United States of America and spillover effects from firmer energy markets amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The FAO All Rice Price Index held broadly steady in July 2026.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 2.0 percent from June, reaching its highest level since June 2022. International quotations for palm oil rose, underpinned by firm demand from Indonesia’s biodiesel sector and higher crude oil prices, while world soy oil prices also increased on the back of persistently robust feedstock demand in the United States of America and stronger global import demand amid greater price competitiveness. Global sunflower and rapeseed oil prices declined.
The FAO Meat Price Index weakened by 2.8 percent from its record high in June, posting its first monthly decline this year. International poultry prices decreased due largely to lower quotations in Brazil amid ample export supplies, while pig meat quotations dipped amid abundant supplies in the European Union and subdued global demand. World bovine meat prices also eased, reflecting weaker import demand from Asia, while ovine meat prices rose to a new record high, supported by persistently tight exportable supplies in Oceania.
The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 0.7 percent in July, with quotations for whole and skim milk powders dropping along with those for butter. Prices for internationally traded cheese rose for the first time in a year as tighter seasonal milk supplies in the European Union more than offset continuing price declines in Oceania and pressure from ample export supplies and intensified competition from the United States of America.
Russia is facing growing difficulties exporting vegetable oils following drone attacks on port infrastructure in the Azov-Black Sea region. In particular, EFKO’s export terminal in Taman, with an annual handling capacity of 1.5 million tons, has suspended operations until damage assessments and repair work are completed. Around 60% of Russia’s vegetable oil exports are normally shipped through the Azov and Black Sea ports.
Despite these disruptions, Russia’s vegetable oil exports maintained positive momentum during January–July. According to OleoScope, total exports increased by 6% to 4.18 million tons. Sunflower oil exports rose 7% to 2.85 million tons, while rapeseed oil shipments also increased 7% to 925 thousand tons. In contrast, soybean oil exports declined by 11% to 361 thousand tons. India, Turkey and Iran remained the largest buyers of Russian sunflower oil.
Market participants, however, expect exports to decline sharply in July and August. SovEcon estimates that July sunflower oil exports fell by 53.9% from June, while August shipments could decline by another 40% year-on-year. Other analysts expect August exports to total only 100–150 thousand tons.
Industry experts believe that redirecting exports through the Baltic or Caspian ports will only partially offset the losses. Higher insurance premiums and freight rates have significantly increased logistics costs, while container shipments from Baltic ports to India now cost about $700–800 more per container than comparable routes from the Black Sea. In addition, several shipping companies have already revised their schedules because of security risks.
Another option is expanding rail exports using flexitank containers. This shift began in the spring, with part of the export flow moving to Russia’s northwestern and Far Eastern ports. However, industry representatives warn that developing new logistics chains will require significant investment, time and substantially higher transportation costs.
Analysts are also skeptical about the possibility of redirecting large export volumes to China through the Far East. Although China is one of the world’s largest vegetable oil importers, its market is dominated by soybean and palm oil, while sunflower oil accounts for only a relatively small share of consumption. Given the much longer transport route and intense competition, experts believe Russia is unlikely to fully replace its traditional Azov-Black Sea export routes with shipments to Asian markets.
India relies heavily on edible oil imports. More than half of the country’s edible oil consumption is met through imports. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, along with deficient rainfall, has raised concerns in India’s edible oil market, according to a recent report published in OpenMarkets, a global market insight platform of the CME Group.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, this year’s monsoon season is expected to witness below-normal seasonal rainfall over most parts of the country. India has seen rising prices of palm, soybean and sunflower seeds needed to make cooking oil. Another fallout of the Middle East conflict has been a sharp rise in crude oil prices, another commodity that India imports in significant quantities. Higher crude prices have prompted economists to trim this year’s GDP growth numbers to 6.6% from 7.7%.
The current economic situation risks derailing plans by the world's most populous nation to double domestic edible oil production to roughly 25.5mn metric tons by 2031, the report said. Under its National Mission on Edible Oils programme, New Delhi is aiming to reduce its dependence on imports from Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine and establish self-sufficiency to a large extent.
The plan is to increase acreage under oilseeds to 33mn hectares up from 29mn hectares, and the use of more innovative harvesting methods. India’s heavy reliance on edible imports (56% vs. 15% in 1995) means New Delhi does not have much room to negotiate prices given the supply chain bottlenecks that have emerged due to the Middle East conflict, the OpenMarkets report stated, citing a study by Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
The ORF said that India's edible oil demand has been increasing at an average annual rate of 4.3%, outpacing domestic oilseed production, which has grown by only 2.2% a year. The widening gap between consumption and output has increased the country's dependence on imports. ORF added that recurring rainfall shortfalls have further heightened India's vulnerability to swings in global edible oil prices and supply chain disruptions.
As petroleum prices rise, farmers are suffering from higher raw input costs, such as fertilisers, that may not be entirely compensated by domestic Minimum Support Price (MSP) government subsidies. If this continues, farmers may be discouraged from long-term oilseed cultivation, potentially undermining the national expansion plan, according to the ORF.
Palm, soybean and sunflower oil, meanwhile, have surged 23%, 11% and 8% since the conflict began in late February, hurting importers who were already suffering under India’s weakening rupee, the report added.
In an effort to stabilise domestic prices, India could roll out so-called price-triggered tariffs that rise when foreign prices drop below a benchmark and decrease when global prices increase, according to the ORF. Currently, import duties stand at a flat rate regardless of market dynamics.
Processing plants have practically stopped purchasing sunflower seeds in Ukraine due to the blockade of sunflower exports and the switch to processing rapeseed, which has caused purchase prices to plummet.
The decline in rapeseed prices due to the impossibility of export to the level of 20,000-21,000 UAH/t increases the marginality of its processing, so factories are actively switching to rapeseed processing, and only small SEZs, which do not have such technical capabilities, continue to process sunflower for the domestic market.
All oil extraction plants in southern Ukraine have completely stopped processing both sunflower and rapeseed due to shelling and damage, as well as the cessation of sea exports of meal and oil, and only some plants within the country are processing rapeseed, which may drag on until November - December due to the significant supply of rapeseed.
Purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine decreased by 4000-5000 UAH/t to 27000-29000 UAH/t (oil content 50%) with delivery to the factory. In addition, processors began to declare prices for the new sunflower crop at the level of 20000-22000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory, which further increased pressure on prices.
Export demand prices for sunflower oil remain at a high level of $1,320-1,335/t delivered to Danube ports, and demand prices for sunflower oil in India and Russian sunflower oil delivered in August have risen to $1,370/t FOB, but markets expect a sharp decline in prices for the new crop under pressure from increased supply and falling oil prices.
Favorable weather for sunflower sowing in Ukraine and the Russian Federation improves harvest potential, but another heat wave in the EU worsens harvest prospects, which will support prices in the second half of the 2026/27 MY.
China has set a target of reaching total grain production capacity of 725M tonnes in its Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported.
The plan served as the foundation for achieving agricultural and rural modernisation by 2035, the USDA’s 17 July Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report said.
In its ‘Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization’ published by the State Council on 2 June, China said technology would be a core driver of agricultural growth.
On the global stage, the plan set out to diversify agricultural imports and cultivate internationally competitive domestic businesses, the Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report said.
China’s State Council said the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’ period was a “critical period for … achieving agricultural and rural modernisation.”
“The document marks a strategic shift from a “transition period” to a phase of systemic modernisation aimed at becoming an agricultural powerhouse by 2035,” the USDA report said.
Official statistics indicated China’s total grain production reached 715M tonnes in 2025.
Key tasks highlighted in the report included prioritising supply capacity of major grain and oilseed crops through efficiency improvements that integrated upgraded farmland, superior seeds, advanced machinery and modern farming practices.
The report called for optimising the layout and structure of major grain and oilseed crops with a focus on producing products that meet market demand.
To supplement domestic supply shortfalls such as in the oilseeds sector, the plan facilitated the diversification of import sources and support for large domestic enterprises with international competitiveness.
“To ensure supply chain safety, China will actively diversify the sources of imported agricultural products, for example soyabeans,” the plan said.
The plan also outlined several key projects such as an “agricultural bio-manufacturing enhancement initiative” to promote novel feed ingredients such as microbial protein, insect protein, oils and amino acids.
It aimed to develop new products including compound microbial fertilisers, bio-organic fertilisers, soil regulators, and RNA or peptide-based pesticides.
Global agribusiness giant ADM has announced plans to expand its oilseed crushing capacity in North America to meet growing demand for renewable fuels and other vegetable oil markets.
Initial investments would be made at four existing US crushing facilities in Frankfort, Indiana; Deerfield, Missouri; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Spiritwood, North Dakota.
The move was expected to unlock approximately 700,000 tonnes/year of additional crushing capacity across the four facilities, adding 25M bushels/year of demand for soyabeans, the company said on 30 July.
“Strong demand – supported by biofuels policy in the US – is driving opportunities for farmers and the broader American agricultural sector,” said Gary McGuigan, president of ADM’s North America Ag Services and Oilseeds business.
In Frankfort, work would focus on storage improvements as well as multiple equipment upgrades, with work expected to be completed in late 2028, the company said.
Investments in Deerfield would unlock capacity within conveying, flaking, extraction and utility systems, with work scheduled for completion in late 2028 or early 2029.
Work at the company’s crushing plant in Lincoln would include meal storage and debottlenecking improvements and was expected to be completed in late 2028.
Equipment improvements would be made at the Spiritwood facility operated through the Green Bison joint venture with Marathon Petroleum Corporation, with work expected to be completed in mid-2028.
The company said it was also looking into making similar investments at several other North America crushing locations.