Urgent action is needed to avert a serious agrifood crisis in the next six to 12 months due to the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, the United Nations (UN)’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says.

The closure of the strait was not a temporary shipping disruption but the start of a systemic agrifood shock that could trigger a global food price crisis, the FAO said on 20 May.

Avoiding such an outcome will require alternative trade routes, restraint on export restrictions, protection of humanitarian flows and buffers to absorb higher transport costs, according to the organisation.

The time has come to “start seriously thinking about how to increase the absorption capacity of countries, how to increase their resilience to this choke, so that we start to minimise the potential impacts,” Maximo Torero, chief economist of the FAO, said in a new podcast.

This would involve exploring “intervention by governments, international financial organisations, the private sector, and by UN agencies and other research centres to try to help countries to be able to cope better with the current situation,” Torero added.

The FAO said the window for preventive action was closing quickly, with decisions taken now by farmers and governments on fertiliser use, imports, financing and crop choices determining if a severe global food price crisis emerged within six to 12 months.

Citing the FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, the organisation said the impact was already visible. The FFPI rose for a third consecutive month in April, driven by high energy costs and disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

The shock was unfolding in stages: energy, fertiliser, seeds, lower yields, commodity price increases, then food inflation, the FAO said.

Mitigating these impacts would require shifting to alternative land and sea routes, including via the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea, said David Laborde, director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division.

However, these routes had limited capacity, making it critical to avoid export restrictions by major producers.

The Indonesian government has launched a centralised export system for palm oil, coal and ferro alloys, the Jakarta Globe reported.

Designed to improve trade transparency and prevent revenue loss from exports, the new system would be managed by new state-owned entity Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), the 31 May report said.

Announcing the launch of the scheme, coordinating minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said implementation would be carried out in phases, starting from 1 June, with full operation targeted by 1 January 2027.

Although exporters would continue conducting overseas sales independently during the transition period, companies would be required to report all export activities to DSI, the Jakarta Globe wrote.

Export reporting would be facilitated through the Customs and Excise Directorate General’s CEISA 4.0 digital platform, Hartato said.

The government plans to review the policy after the first three months of implementation before proceeding to the next phase, according to the report.

Once the system was fully operational, Hartato said DSI would move beyond its initial role as a reporting and transaction-monitoring body and would begin purchasing export commodities domestically before marketing them to international buyers.

DSI was also developing technology systems to support its future role as the sole exporter of the three commodities covered under the new policy, the Jakarta Globe wrote.

Indonesia’s move to channel ​palm oil exports through a central agency could disrupt supplies of the world’s most traded edible ‌oil, according to a 20 May Reuters report.

As the world’s leading palm oil producer, Indonesia accounts for more than half of global shipments of the commodity and the move could also concentrate pricing power and potentially boost exports from the second leading producer Malaysia, the report said.

Meteorologists warn that an unusually powerful El Niño could hit crops, livestock, and food supply chains worldwide, driving prices higher through 2027.

A potential "Super El Niño" is raising alarm bells across global agricultural markets as meteorologists warn that one of the strongest climate events on record could develop in the coming months. Combined with fertilizer shortages, elevated energy costs, inflation, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions, the phenomenon could trigger significant increases in food prices throughout 2026 and 2027. The warning matters because the impact would not be limited to one region. Instead, it could simultaneously affect major crop-producing and livestock-producing areas across multiple continents, creating a rare and dangerous challenge for global food security.

According to climate forecasters, the El Niño pattern now forming in the Pacific Ocean could strengthen rapidly during the second half of 2026, reaching peak intensity during the Northern Hemisphere winter. While weather conditions may begin to moderate during 2027, many of the effects on agricultural production and commodity markets could persist well beyond a single growing season.

The greatest concern is not simply drought in one country or flooding in another. The real threat comes from what scientists call climate teleconnections-simultaneous weather disruptions occurring across multiple agricultural regions around the world.

Global food security depends heavily on a relatively small number of crops. Corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice account for more than 60% of the calories consumed worldwide, making the global food system highly vulnerable to widespread production losses.

Higher temperatures and prolonged dry conditions can disrupt germination, flowering, pollination, grain fill, and crop maturity. In severe cases, drought can damage root systems, reduce soil productivity, and significantly lower yields.

For U.S. agriculture, the stakes are particularly high. Heat and moisture stress across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Western growing regions could impact yields in corn, soybeans, wheat, and other key crops that support both domestic consumption and export markets.

June 1 - When the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded, few people were surprised at the impact that it had on oil prices. But many were shocked at just how important the waterway is for another commodity crucial to the global economy: fertiliser.

Few events could more cogently make the case for a new way of farming that reduces reliance on fertiliser and builds resilience to both geopolitical upheaval and the growing climate impacts that threaten agriculture and food systems.

About 30% of traded fertiliser passes through the strait, says Clement Metivier, senior policy manager at FAIRR, the investor network focused on risk in the global food system.

The conflict with Iran is “a systemic stress-test for a system that remains ​very dependent on fossil fuels. And this is not a conventional geopolitical shock: it’s affecting energy, fertiliser and food production, all at the same time,” Metivier says.

The blockade also highlights the fact that, just like oil and gas, food production and exports are concentrated in a ‌small number of countries, says Pratima Singh, principal, policy and Insights team at Economist Impact, which publishes the Resilient Food Systems Index.

“Globally, just 15 countries produce 70% of the world’s food. Eleven of them are also among the top 15 exporters, which account for more than 60% of global food exports,” she says. “A narrow set of countries and trade corridors is underwriting much of global food resilience. When they function well, they stabilise markets far beyond their borders. When they fall short, systemic vulnerability follows.”

The blockade came at the start of the northern hemisphere growing season. Farmers are likely to apply less fertiliser than they normally would, which may reduce yields and lead to acute food shortages later in the year.

The Food and Agriculture Organization warned in ​April that a protracted blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a “global agrifood catastrophe”. It also pointed to the risk of farmers allocating more land and resources to biofuels to benefit from higher oil prices, a further threat to global food supplies.

“Manufacturing fertiliser is very energy-intensive so ​there is both a massive cost escalation and a massive shortage of the raw materials needed to make it,” says Diane Holdorf, executive vice-president at The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and former VP and CSO at Kellogg. “All that ⁠comes at a critical planting moment in the northern hemisphere, but it will cascade into the southern hemisphere planting seasons as well.”